Declínio populacional: o conectivo 'yet'
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Can Population Decline Solve Global Environmental Challenges?
Projections by the United Nations indicate that dozens of countries around the world will face population decline in the near future. Europe is already experiencing this phenomenon, while Latin America and Asia are expected to follow suit in the 2050s.
Among the top-20 countries currently undergoing rapid population decline, all except two – Japan and Cuba – are located in Europe and most are high-income countries. Predictions indicate that around the end of the current century, nearly all countries in the world will witness fertility rates dipping below the threshold of 2.1 needed to maintain population stability. Governments of countries with low fertility rates are worried and see this decline as an economic crisis. Some environmentalists, however, suggest that declining populations in high-income countries is a positive trend, since it likely leads to lower carbon emissions. Yet, when taking a closer look at the correlation between demographic shifts and carbon emissions, one can conclude that population decline in high-income countries is not a sufficient solution to stop global warming.
Historically, overpopulation has been linked to global warming, and fundamentally, a reduced global population translates to lower demand for resources such as water and energy, ultimately alleviating pressures on ecosystems. When considering this, one could argue that global population decline is a positive trend. However, emissions are intrinsically linked to income levels, outweighing the influence of population size. Individuals in wealthy countries emit 50 times more than people living in the poorest countries, with 10% of people globally generating nearly half of global consumption-related emissions. For instance, China, the world’s second-most populous nation, ranks as the world’s largest emitter of CO2, responsible for a third of global GHG emissions. However, its emissions per capita (8.05 tonnes) are substantially lower than those of the world’s second-largest emitter, the US (14.86 tonnes) and the fifth-largest emitter Japan (8.57 tonnes). In contrast, Syria and South Sudan, the two countries with the highest population growth, emit merely 1.27 tonnes and 0.15 tonnes per capita, respectively.
The picture that emerges is clear: while low-income countries experience swift population growth alongside low emissions, high-income nations remain substantial emitters despite consistently declining population rates. Hence, instead of shifting blame to developing nations, high-income countries should be the ones to be held accountable for their contribution to global warming. These nations should find out how they can stop the endless cycle of consumption growth and reinvent their economies to become more circular and sustainable.
(From: https://earth.org. Access: 04/02/2024. Adapted.)
Fonte: Earth.org, 2024-04-02.
The use of the word yet in “Yet, when taking a closer look at the correlation between demographic shifts and carbon emissions one can conclude that...” conveys an idea of
- A) Cause.
- B) Comparison.
- C) Conclusion.
- D) Contrast.